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Facts. There are a two main ways of learning them. One way is to query someone who should know and hope they are sincere and accurate. Another method is evaluate large quantities of data and deduce the facts and figuring out the truth for ourselves. It is usually that those in the know have the knowledge because they employed method two. Unfortunately, when it comes to the SKS, those who may still have the facts don't exactly care to share them so we're left figuring them out for ourselves.
Let's take a look at what a little analysis can reveal. The following chart is a little something I put together to better visualize a pattern that started to emerge while I was rearranging the CHINESE FACTORY CODE CHART. I noticed that patterns developed with the first and last digits of the factory code. For example, there is a factory 106, 206, 306, 406, 606, and 906. They all end in 06. The same was true for codes that ended with just 6 and 16 - except they were missing one in the series (indicated in red on the chart).
TRIANGLE CODE ANALYSIS
Interesting, yes? Judging from the chart, one can deduce that it is very likely factories 46, and 616 exist by comparing the patters both vertically and horizontally. Of course there is no proof of this, but the numbers suggest otherwise. The factories 606 and 206 were formerly some of the missing factories in red, but that has since changed as multiple visitors have sent me photos of those codes. Please see the CHINESE FACTORY CODE CHART to see some of the photos.
All of this gave me an idea...
OVERVIEW: This project is a continuation of the work started by the SKS collector Howard Bearse. Howard owns over 50 SKS's, all from different factories, and has generously supplied this site with most of the data for it's extensive FACTORY CODE CHART. On top of that, Howard has been manually collecting serial numbers from any SKS owner willing to participate in this endeavor. In time, this effort will benefit everyone who owns a Chinese SKS.
The bottom line is we can either take the word of a few Chinese officials who face harsh punishment for revealing too many "national secrets" or we can join together and discover the facts for ourselves.
WHY THIS IS NECESSARY: Nobody in America knows how many rifles factory 26 has produced. Nobody in America knows what production years factory 6675 participated in SKS production. Nobody knows which factory codes are the most rare. The only way we can find out is to gather TONS of data from all over the country and establish statistics and production ranges from this information.
PARTICIPATION IS OPTIONAL: More than that, participation is also greatly appreciated. Please don't submit any information you don't feel comfortable submitting.
THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR: Accuracy is key in this endeavor. If there are any letters tacked to the end of your serial number, I need to know. If you are unsure of your factory code, choose (OTHER) and describe your code in the box provided. Any information that is out of the ordinary or even hints of fraud will be moved to a separate database to be further analyzed or discarded entirely.
THIS IS A SAFE THING TO DO: I'm not requiring your name, email address, or any of your personal information. I'm not asking for your EXACT serial number, just it's range. I've taken great pains to assure a safe and anonymous submission system.
So what have we learned thus far?
First, I'd like to begin by thanking everyone who has taken the time to submit. Your patience has been most appreciated.
I've started this project almost exactly four years ago. I knew it was going to take a while, but I never, ever realized that the numbers were going to take this long to roll in. In four years, we've only had around 1500 Chinese codes submitted and only about 150 Russian numbers. We need at least 10,000 Chinese codes to extrapolate which codes are truly rare. 1500 will indicate trends, but the more subtle information is still indiscernible. At this rate it is going to take 25 years to get where we need to go... Tell your friends, jot down info at gun shows, do what you have to do but we need more numbers!
Sadly, most of the Russian numbers are no good. People are entering Chinese numbers, they aren't describing the Cyrillic letters, entering way too many X's, or otherwise entering bad information. I'm going to have to do a LOT of work to figure out what is usable.
The Chinese info looks much better. Although some information is a little sketchy, with more numbers comes greater accuracy and increased tolerance for small amounts of bad data. Let's see what we know:
I don't think it is any real surprise to people that the Triangle 26 is the most prolific Chinese factory code out there. It was one of the first factories, so it probably cranked out millions of SKS's before later factories even existed. Factory 26 is also a large factory producing all sorts of firearms, so they probably have the highest yearly yield of all the rest. What is unexpected is that more than 1/3 of all Chinese Type 56's are 26's! The percentages drop steeply from there then level out at the 0.01% - 3% range. It's relatively flat from the 0138 down. There are about 60 different factory codes and I was expecting a much more pronounced range than what we see.
I know, I know. You didn't come here to learn which were the most common. You want to know which are the most rare - thus most valuable. Sorry, folks. Until we have at least 10,000 entries, I can't even begin to tell you this with any certainty. We're just going to have to give the project more time to do its thing. Hopefully we'll have a more clear indication of the rare codes when the total submissions are read 3000 or 5000 in number. So what good was the past four years? Well, more than half of you (57.25% to be exact) now know beyond a shadow of a doubt that your Type 56 is of the common variety. Also, everyone who reads this knows that the next gun dealer who tells you his 306 or 636 is rare is also full of it.
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